Najib-led BN
heading for GE13 political disaster
By Chua Jui
Meng
GOING into the March 2008 12th General Election with a 71%
approval rating, then premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was expected to win
comfortably for a second term in office.
After all, he had led Barisan Nasional (BN) to its biggest ever electoral
victory in history in the 2004 General Election – winning 91% of the 222-seat
Parliament.
The political tsunami surprised every Malaysian – it was to be BN’s worst
ever electoral performance, losing its traditional two-thirds majority and five
state governments.
Today, Umno president and prime minister Najib Abdul Razak’s approval
rating is 63%, according to a Merdeka Centre poll last December.
Can one really conclude with any accuracy the outcome of the coming 13th
General Election? Parliament is headed for automatic dissolution on April 28
and the first state assembly set for automatic dissolution is Negri Sembilan on
March 23.
Former premier Mahathir Mohamad blames Abdullah for BN-Umno’s current
weak political standing. But Mahathir failed to acknowledge that it was he who
contributed immensely to Abdullah’s downfall with his harsh criticisms of
Abdullah’s administration.
However, Abdullah and his son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin have to also take
a lion’s share of the blame for BN-Umno’s predicament.
It was Abdullah and Khairy’s Putrajaya Fourth Floor Boys who dug their
own political graves by swallowing the government’s gravy train.
Abdullah and Khairy are also responsible for not only extending the New
Economic Policy (NEP) for another 15 years (1995-2020), they also formulated a
damning new Wealth Ownership policy via the 9th Malaysia Plan (9MP).
This
was carried out with the approval of the then MCA big four – Ong Ka Ting, Chan
Kong Choy, Fong Chan Onn and Chua Soi Lek – and others in the cabinet.
The Wealth Ownership policy has far reaching consequences on non-Malays which
the Umno-led BN had yet to implement openly. However, certain policies had been
implemented discreetly.
The
Wealth Ownership policy means:
Ø The
NEP has become a never ending policy as it states that it is to be extended to
2020, not end in 2020;
Ø If
you discover or invent anything that comes under intellectual property rights,
you have to surrender 30% share to Bumiputra; and
Ø All
SMEs, like your successful retail franchises, have to surrender 30% equity to
Bumiputra, thus extending the original NEP’s equity distribution beyond the
corporate sector.
Malaysians
have BN and MCA to thank for selling out Malaysians, particularly the Chinese,
big time for Umno’s self-serving wealth grab agenda.
The
Wealth Ownership policy will certainly benefit Umno leaders, their families and
cronies, just like how the NEP has enriched Umnoputras, not the majority
Malays.
Abdullah
had confided in me the national coffer was empty when he succeeded Mahathir
Mohamad as prime minister in November 2003.
That
is why the BN government had to borrow to keep the country’s administration
afloat and this wanton reliance on borrowings was extended by current Prime
Minister Najib Abdul Razak.
That
explains why Malaysians and Malaysia are saddled with a federal debt of more
than RM620 billion or 74% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), breaching the
legislated federal debt ceiling of 55% of GDP.
When
Abdullah took over from Mahathir, the federal debt was only RM250 billion.
With
Najib’s popular rating falling by the day and lower than Abdullah when he
called for the 12th General Election in March 2008, the only outcome
for BN-Umno in GE13 is nothing short of political disaster.
Here
more for your reading reference:
Barisan
Nasional still weak because of Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi
June 2, 2012
KUALA LUMPUR, (June, 2) — The Barisan Nasional (BN)
government is still weak because of Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s tenure as prime
minister, his predecessor and vocal critic Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad told several
Johor Umno division chiefs two days ago.
Dr Mahathir met Johor civil servants and Johor Umno division
chiefs where he was briefed about the state’s political situation and BN’s
preparedness for the next general elections. Johor is the birthplace of the
original Umno which was declared illegal in 1988 when Dr Mahathir was
president, and remains its strongest political fortress until today.
“Dr Mahathir told the Umno chiefs they have to work very
hard because the government is still weak due to Pak Lah’s time as PM,” a
source told, referring to Abdullah’s moniker.
“He still believes Abdullah is the cause of BN’s
weaknesses,” the source stressed.
This is Dr Mahathir’s second meeting with Umno divisional leaders in as many weeks, with the first being a briefing with Kedah Umno on May 20. There, he called for party unity ahead of the coming polls in the PAS-ruled state.
This is Dr Mahathir’s second meeting with Umno divisional leaders in as many weeks, with the first being a briefing with Kedah Umno on May 20. There, he called for party unity ahead of the coming polls in the PAS-ruled state.
Abdullah became the shortest-serving prime minister after BN
lost its customary two-thirds parliamentary majority and four states in
Election 2008. He stepped down in April 2009 in favour of Datuk Seri Najib
Razak.
Dr Mahathir, the country’s longest-serving prime minister,
quit Umno in May 2008 to protest Abdullah’s leadership and failure in March
2008 general election. Pak Lah succeeded Dr Mahathir in 2003 and won 91 per
cent of the parliament’s elected house, Dewan Rakyat, in the 2004 polls.
It is learnt that Abdullah is due to release his memoirs
soon where he has written about the tiff with Dr Mahathir that led to his
downfall despite enjoying a 71 per cent approval rating before Election 2008.
Many have blamed the results to poor intelligence and public anger stirred by
the Hindraf and Bersih rallies in November 2007.
Pak Lah’s successor, Najib, has been working hard to regain
support for BN since April 2009 by launching a slew of economic, administrative
and political reforms. He has also initiated programmes to help poor households
tide with rising cost of living by giving RM500 each to 5.3 million households
early this year.
But Najib’s popularity has slipped in recent months, an
opinion poll showed yesterday, as he lost support among Chinese and
middle-class voters ahead of a general election that he could call within
months.
Support for Najib slid to 65 per cent in the May poll from
69 per cent in March, according to pollster Merdeka Centre.
The 58-year-old leader has enjoyed high personal approval ratings, but analysts say it is unclear whether that will translate into increased support for his less popular
The 58-year-old leader has enjoyed high personal approval ratings, but analysts say it is unclear whether that will translate into increased support for his less popular
Umno party and its allies. The dip may add to speculation
that Najib may choose to delay elections until after presenting the budget on
September 28.
“The small gain in Malay voter satisfaction towards the PM
appears to have been outweighed by the large negative swing among Chinese
voters,” Merdeka Center said in a statement.
The poll found that approval for Najib was weakest among the
Chinese, tumbling 19 percentage points to 37 per cent. Among those in the
middle income bracket, this fell 18 percentage points to 50 per cent. His
popularity among Malays, who form the majority of Malaysia’s population, rose 5
percentage points to 79 per cent.
Voters’ views on the government remained lukewarm, with
approval staying unchanged at 48 per cent. The survey was carried out between
May 10 and May 18 among 1,019 registered voters to gauge sentiment after an
anti-government protest in April. – TMI
Wednesday, 30 January 2013 04:20
Latest
intelligence PR to win 124 seats, BN 98: RM5 MILLION "going-rate" to
lure PR contestants
Written by Maria Begum, Malaysia ChronicleThe cat is out of the bag. Despite vows of being able to retain the federal government with two-thirds of the seats in Parliament, Prime Minister Najib Razak is staring at stark defeat.
According to political sources, a survey conducted by a special government intelligence unit showed Najib's Umno-Barisan Nasional coalition trailing far behind the Pakatan Rakyat led by Anwar Ibrahim with only 98 seats to the Opposition's 124.
Anwar and PR are expected to win 10 seats in the Federal Territories, 10 in Johor, 11 in Kedah, 12 in Kelantan, 18 in Perak, 17 in Selangor, 1 in Terengganu, 1 in Malacca, 3 in Negeri Sembilan, 5 in Pahang, 0 in Perlis and a total of 25 in Sabah and Sarawak.
"This is a real eye-opener for the big-wigs in Umno. It is no wonder Najib and Mahathir are now so panicky in their response to issues that crop up. They cannot afford to make any mistake at this stage," Zulkefly Othman, secretary of the security council in Anwar's PKR party, told Malaysia Chronicle.
RM5mil going rate to "buy over" a PR candidate
Zulkefly, who is also the head of strategy for the PKR Malacca division, expects the going to get "really rough and dirty" in the weeks ahead, with vote-rigging, Opposition-bashing and an avalanche of "election goodies" to deluge the nation as the Umno-BN struggled to retain its 55-year stranglehold on power.
He warns that BN has intensified its lures to Opposition candidates to defect, a threat that he said the PR leadership must beware of and put at the top of its list of electoral risks.
"The going rate is now RM5 mil for a PR candidate and going closer to the GE, we can expect this number to increase. The BN will surely play very dirty and the PR leadership must find ways to counter this," said Zulkefly.
"To me, this is even more dangerous than the vote-rigging and padding of the electoral rolls. So in choosing their contestants, the top PR leaders must be wise. They must have a plan to prevent this sort of unethical defection and the best way is to recruit only those who are truly sincere and have iron-cast principles. Those who are thick-skinned and not 'malu' (shy) to jump ship should not be considered," Zulkefly said.
Nervous Najib might again delay GE13
Indeed, the nervousness displayed by Umno-BN leaders is visible. Former premier Mahathir Mohamad has been making a return to the limelight in a bid to rally support from the key Malay electorate and even Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has promised the BN may make permanent a cash aid scheme it recently announced so as to get the people to retain the political status quo.
“We don't want to see such aid be a one-off payment. It should be disbursed on a long-term basis. I believe the Prime Minister will look into BR1M (1Malaysia People's Aid) as a programme that should be continued. I am sure that it will be continued on a long-term basis when the rakyat (people) retains Barisan as the Federal Government,” theStar newspaper reported Muhyiddin as saying after distributing RM100 cash vouchers to students of five schools last week.
However, it may be too late for the BN. No matter what late-hour strategy Najib pulls, many political observers and pundits are of the view that the people will plumb for change, disgusted and fed-up with the rampant and endemic corruption in the BN government.
According to Zulkefly, Najib might use the latest survey to once again delay the GE13. The latest hint coming from those in the PM's camp are that he will dissolve Parliament on Feb 22, post nominations on Mar 16, with balloting on Mar 30.
"We won't be surprised. Najib may wait for Parliament to automatically dissolve on April 28 to buy himself and the BN more time. But there is no guarantee they can win back the people. I would say Malaysians are already very annoyed by the delay so far. They have made up their minds and want to vote. If Najib continues to dilly-dally, it will only irritate them more," said Zulkefly.
Market sell-off, investors wearied by prolonged uncertainty
Even investors are betting on a regime change and recently sold off in anticipation that hardliners in Najib's party might create unrest if they lost. The benchmark stock market index FBM KLCI suffered its steepest one-day fall in 8 months last week, plunging 40.81 points and losing RM35billion in market capitalization amid speculation Najib would dissolve Parliament on February 22.
"Why must the entire nation- yes all of us - from corporate sector making investment decision to citizens wanting to plan weddings or umrah trip, be subjected to this vagaries of an election date?" asked Dzulkefly Ahmad, the MP for Kuala Selangor who also heads the PAS Research Centre.
In the country's coming 13th general election, 222 seats in the federal Parliament and 505 state assembly seats in 12 states (excluding Sarawak which held its state assembly election in 2011) will be contested.
In the 2008 election, PR had won 82 seats vs BN's 140, denying for the first time the Umno-BN government its long-held two-thirds control of Parliament, which allows it to hammer through key changes to the Federal Constitution, the country's highest law.
In the 2004 election, PR had only managed to win 21 vs BN's 198. At that time, there were only 219 parliamentary seats were up for contest. Three new seats were created only in the 2008 election - Igan, Sibuti and Limbang in Sarawak.
Malaysia Chronicle
Saturday, 26 January 2013 00:00
DEATH
KNELL FOR BN: EU willing to recognize Anwar, PR as the NEW GOVT if they win
GE13 Featured
Written by Wong Choon Mei, Malaysia ChronicleUPDATE2 The European Union Ambassador to Malaysia Luc Vandebon said the EU would have no porblems working with Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim and his Pakatan Rakyat coalition should they wrest the federal government in the coming general election.
"Absolutely, we want to work with Malaysia. We are ready to work with Datuk Seri Anwar and any other democratically-elected government," Vandebon told a press conference on Friday.
Very significant statement from a world power
The statement is a tremendous morale booster for the 64-year-old Anwar and PR as they move into the last lap of what is expected to be a very dirty ballot.
Prime Minister Najib Razak, who has vowed to defend his Umno-BN government's 55-year hold on power "at all costs", is likely to dissolve Parliament and call for the country's 13th general elections in the next few weeks..
"It is a very positive sign as far as PKR and PR are conscerned. The Ambassador said categorically they are prepared to work with any democratically-elected government and this is a very significant statement coming at this time," Anwar later told reporters when asked for his response to the EU's statement.
"Their presentation today to PR leaders and Members of Parliament was informative. They raised various economic issues that are of importance to the EU and we will take these views and positions into consideration."
PKR leaders cheered the news, pointing out that EU's emphasis on co-operation with "democratically-elected" government should be noted by Najib and his Umno-BN coalition.
"EU is one of the world's most powerful economies and trading blocs. The fact that they came to the PKR headquarters tells its own story. This is a very important statement and should serve as a warning to Najib and Umno-BN," PKR senior leader Tan Kee Kwong told Malaysia Chronicle on the sidelines of the conference.
"If they try to hang onto power by unjust and unfair means, the EU may not want to play ball with them. Umno-BN will become a pariah as far as the global community is concerned, they should watch it."
Kee Kwong's remark comes as the Umno-BN struggles to shake itself free from allegations of vote-rigging and even offering citizenship to illegal immigrants in exchange for their votes.
The concerns of the Malaysian people that there will be widespread electoral cheating are serious and widespread, and reflected in the phenomenal support for free and fair polls movement Bersih, which managed to carry out 3 successful public rallies despite being banned and prosecuted by the Najib administration.
Negotiations to resume after GE13
Vandebon had on Friday morning led a team to the PKR headquarters to discuss the ongoing EU-Malaysia Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Since 2010, the EU has had seven rounds of negotiations with the Malaysian government, but nothing concrete has been finalized. T
The EU team has been told that negotiations will resume after the general election.
"I am not sure we can say there has been any delay ... given that these are extremely complex agreements. But we are ready to resume negotiations after the elections with any democratically-elected government," Vandebon reiterated.
The EU is an economic and political union of 27 member states which are located primarily in Europe. The EU operates through a system of supranational independent institutions and intergovernmental negotiated decisions by the member states.
It has a combined population of over 500 million or 7.3% of the world population, generating the largest nominal world gross domestic product (GDP) of 17.6 trillion US dollars in 2011, representing approximately 20% of the global GDP when measured in terms of purchasing power parity.
Level playing field
Anwar was quick to affirm his coalition's willingness to work the EU but stressed the need for a "level playing field".
"Malaysia is a trading nation and effective measures need to be adopted to enhance trade and investment. We will direct the Pakatan Rakyat Economic Secretariat to urgently look into the matter. We will engage with our industry sectors for their feedback. Our general principle is to adopt the principle of free trade with fairness and a level playing field," said Anwar, a deputy prime minister and finance minister.
In 2011, Malaysia was the EU's 23rd largest trading partner in goods. Bilateral trade between the EU and Malaysia is dominated by industrial products. The EU mainly imports machinery and appliances and mainly exports electrical equipment and machinery (both ways industrial products account for more than 90% of trade). Other sectors of relevance in terms of EU imports from Malaysia are plastics and rubber and animal and vegetable fats and oils and in terms of exports, mechanical products.
EU imports from Malaysia have gradually increased since 2003, experiencing a significant decrease in 2008-2009 (16% fall). With the exception of fisheries, EU exports have also seen a growing trend since 2000, with an 18% decrease in 2008-2009 due to the economic downturn. Although Malaysia has not been a major trading partner in services so far, opportunities are increasing due to pressure to liberalise key sectors.
In September 2010 the EU Member States approved the launch of negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement with Malaysia. Malaysia is a member of ASEAN and a WTO member.
Malaysia Chronicle
THE
DOMINOS IN JOHOR
February
1st 2013 | Published in The Rocket
Johor is the last
bastion of Barisan Nasional but the coming general election may prove that the
fortress may turn out to be merely a sand castle. If Pakatan Rakyat gets the
support of 35 percent Malay, 80 percent Chinese and 50 percent Indian voters in
Johor, 20 parliamentary seats will fall like dominoes. Hence, Pakatan may gain
the much-needed 112-seat threshold to form the next federal government with
just seats from Peninsula Malaysia.
In the two rounds of seat re-delineation exercises in 1994 and
2003, many multiethnic mixed seats were created for Barisan Nasional to
maximise its multiethnic appeal and to make the most out of the opposition’s
inability to win across ethnic boundaries.
PAS was made to be seen by the Barisan-controlled media to
non-Malays as an anathema to their interests while DAP as a threat to the
Malays. Before 2008, PAS supporters rarely vote for DAP and vice versa.
The 2008 general election saw PAS benefiting from outpouring
Chinese and Indian support for the “anything but UMNO” call while some urban
Malays voted for DAP for the first time in their lives. Many multiethnic seats
in the states north of Negeri Sembilan on the west coast of the Peninsula fell
to the opposition.
How Pakatan can actually win Johor
Sabah and Johor are the two most crucial battlefields in the
2013 election. While Sabah attracts substantial attention, it could be hampered
by seat negotiation and cooperation among various opposition groups. Johor is
where Barisan Nasional may fall like dominoes.
Of Johor’s 26 parliamentary seats, only 8 have more than 60
percent Malay votes which are harder to win with the current level of support
for Pakatan Rakyat. No seat in Johor has more than 60 percent Chinese voters.
On the one hand, without 25 percent Malay support, even if
non-Malay swing to Pakatan Rakyat is huge, the entire momentum may just fizzle
out with a very few seats gained. Pakatan Rakyat received only about 20 percent
Malay support in Johor during the 2008 general election.
On the other hand, if 35 percent Malay voters support Pakatan in
this election, anything could happen. While it is tough to get 35 percent Malay
support, it is never impossible.
I was informed that a recent opinion poll shows that Malay
support for Pakatan in Johor has exceeded 30 percent though the support varies
among parties – PAS’ support is much higher than average while DAP’s Malay
support is lower than average.
The poll also shows that support from the Chinese for Pakatan is
around 70 percent though varies among parties with DAP exceeding the average
while PAS lower than average. The poll shows the support from among Indians is
at about 50 percent.
Working together is key to victory
As the election approaches, I believe the gaps will narrow if
PAS and DAP, with the help of PKR, manage to convince supporters to vote for
each other in the context of coalition.
From purely mathematic simulations, here are the possible
scenarios in Johor (assuming Indian support for Pakatan is constant):~
- Malay support at 25%, Chinese support at 65%, Pakatan will win just 1 parliamentary seat in Johor;
- Malay support at 30%, Chinese support at 70%, Pakatan will win 6 seats;
- Malay support at 30%, Chinese support at 75%, Pakatan will win 12 seats;
- Malay support at 35%, Chinese support at 75%, Pakatan will win 16 seats;
- Malay support at 35%, Chinese support at 80%, Pakatan will win 20 seats.
Of course these are just simulations on paper. But it shows that
Barisan Nasional’s castle may crumble if a perfect storm comes into shape. It
is also a fresh tsunami alert from the people of Johor to the government who
refuses to reform.
MCA supported Umno to sell out the
Chinese
By Chua Jui Meng
The 1,200-people Klang PKR early Chinese
New Year Dinner cum ceramah at Restaurant
Taman Rahsna on Jan 10, 2013.
PKR vice-president Chua Jui Meng sharing a light moment with Nurul Izzah and Tan Yee Kew at the VVIP table before the
start of the dinner cum ceramah.
THE
MCA sold out the Chinese and other non-Bumiputra communities by supporting the
9th Malaysia (9MP) which contained damning wealth ownership
controls.
Then
Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi had not only extended the New Economic
Policy (NEP) till 2020, the MCA supported 9MP’s Wealth Ownership clause which which
require non-Bumiputra Small-Medium Industries (SMIs) and Small-Medium
Entrepreneurs (SMEs) to surrender at least 30% share equity to Bumiputras.
The
MCA Chinese traitors and their racist Umno masters must be given the boot
before they inflict further and irreparable damage to the country’s
socio-economic growth.
The
MCA big four who sold out the Chinese were Ong Ka Ting, Chan Kong Choy, Fong
Chan Onn and Chua Soi Lek, and other Cabinet members.
Chua … MCA supported Umno to sell out
Chinese and others.
The
9MP was formulated in 2005 and until today, none of the Chinese vernacular
newspapers dare to report what I have been raising and saying about the 9MP.
It
was also because of my strong objection to the extension of the NEP that Umno
had interfered and influenced MCA central leaders to clip my wings and
eventually forcing me to find another political platform to serve Malaysians
and Malaysia.
That
platform is PKR (Parti Keadilan Rakyat) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR).
I
had made it clear that I objected to the extension of the NEP because, after
more than two decades, it had only benefited Umno chieftains and their
cronies.
The
majority of the rural and urban Malays remain poor, in the low and middle
income groups.
The
NEP had also achieved 45% corporate equity for the Malays, nore than the 30%
target. Unfortunately, the bulk of the wealth had been hijacked by Umnoputras
and their cronies.
After
failing my second bid for the MCA presidency, I was offered and I could have
taken up a cushy high paying, high flying corporate appointment but I decided
to fight for justice and discrimination.
The
future of our children, grand children and generations to come is more
important than the corporate money and perks.
Nurul Izzah … 55 years of a looting
BN-Umno government is enough. Today, there is no law and justice for the rakyat. We have a shameless prime
minister in Najib Abdul Razak who does not know anything about integrity and
accountability.
Only
this evening the police have announced the revocation of the permit for the Himpunan Rakyat Kuala Lumpur to assemble
in Merdeka Stadium on Saturday (Jan 12, 2013).
Again,
the Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) has displayed its dirty tactics in trying to
frustrate PR and the rakyat with the
use of the police.
We
will storm Stadium Merdeka for Change!
The
March 2008 political tsunami was not strong enough to bury BN.
PR
only managed to win a parliamentary seat each in Sabah, Sarawak and Johor – all
considered BN strongholds or fixed deposit states.
This
time around or the coming 13th General Election, it is crucial for
Malaysians who wish to see justice, democracy and good governance to give their
mandate to PR to rule.
Malaysians
in these three states who decide on a total of 82 parliamentary seats hold the
key to our future.
Tan Yee Kew … if BN is allowed to
continue to rule after GE13, Malaysia will surely be bankrupted because
billions of corrupt ringgit is being smuggled out of the country every year. We
want change not only because we want Anwar Ibrahim to be prime minister, or
Chua Jui Meng to be a Cabinet minister, but more so for a trustworthy and just
government that respects the rule of law and democracy.
We
need a clean, honest and sincere government to forward Malaysia and the only
choice for Malaysians today is PR.
After
55 years of looting the country’s wealth and coffer, dividing a multi-racial
multi-religious society to extend their misrule and abuses of power are more
than enough reasons for the rakyat to
replace the BN government.
I
wish all Chinese a very happy and prosperous Chinese New Year. Also a very
joyous and prosperous change in GE13.
Tian Chua …Malaysians have no other
choice but to support DAP, PAS and PKR for the future of our generations. We
need a government that can bring about higher and higher socio-economic
progress every year. Capital flight, now totalling RM641 billion and still
counting, is no future.